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1.3.5 Demographic dividend

🌍 Geographical knowledge and understanding

<aside> <img src="https://prod-files-secure.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/5dfaa85a-36eb-4a3d-8214-21164bf7167f/1a5a1459-7586-4ffe-afaf-689dfe64d608/GATW_kahoot.png" alt="https://prod-files-secure.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/5dfaa85a-36eb-4a3d-8214-21164bf7167f/1a5a1459-7586-4ffe-afaf-689dfe64d608/GATW_kahoot.png" width="40px" /> The demographic dividend and the ways in which population could be considered a resource when contemplating possible futures.

✅ Action

⏳ Tasks

🔑 Key terms

🎯 Context

🌍 Population potential in Africa

https://open.spotify.com/episode/7dgd4Bmqi4FJnVi1TRxIVv

  1. Listen to the podcast above and answer the following questions →

    1. What is the global population predicted to be in 2030 and 2050?

    2. What percentage of global population growth between now and 2050 will be in Africa?

    3. What is the one figure the podcast asks you to remember about Africa?

    4. What is Africa's fertility rate? What does that mean for the next generation?

    5. What is the link between population size and GDP?

    6. Why do young people need to be 'kept busy' in Nigeria?

    7. Do high fertility rates cause poverty?

    8. What will happen if governments fail to plan properly?

💵 What is a demographic dividend?

[29 January 2019]

[29 January 2019]

[Source]

[Source]

What is the Demographic Dividend? - Population Education

  1. Define demographic dividend.

  2. What are the conditions necessary for a country to be in a position to take advantage of a demographic dividend?

  3. Why do you think family size and life span are joined together with a plus sign rather than shown separately?

🇰🇪 Case study of a country benefiting from a demographic dividend - Kenya

demographic_dividend_redesigned.svg

https://open.spotify.com/episode/5SKgxT0OuljkPCi4RST1PT?si=61cf391265684061

You've seen how the demographic dividend is supposed to work. As you listen, look for evidence of whether Kenya is on track and where it's struggling.

  1. What is the median age of Kenya's population, and what proportion are aged 18 to 34?

  2. What share of Kenyan jobs are in the informal sector, according to Joy Kiru?

  3. How many digital jobs has the Kenyan government promised to create, and over what timeframe?
  4. What is the National Youth Opportunities for Advancement programme trying to do?
  5. Why does Joy Kiru say many young Kenyans, especially in rural areas, don't even know about these government schemes?
  6. What features of Kenya's workforce and infrastructure make it attractive for business process outsourcing?
  7. Which of the four dividends on the diagram (labour supply, savings, human capital, economic growth) does the podcast suggest Kenya is closest to achieving, and which is it furthest from?
  8. The diagram shows "skills mismatch" as a bottleneck. What evidence from the podcast about Kenyan universities supports this?
  9. Joy Kiru describes Kenya's growth as "jobless growth". How does this challenge the diagram's assumption that more working-age adults automatically leads to economic growth?
  10. The diagram lists "weak government" as a bottleneck. How does the death of Albert Omondi Ojuang, and the protests that followed, illustrate this for Kenya?
  11. Markus Larsen warns that the outsourcing jobs Kenya is targeting could "become obsolete" because of artificial intelligence. Which box on the diagram does this threaten most directly, and why?
  12. Boaz Munga suggests Kenya should focus on improving its existing informal jobs rather than only chasing new digital ones. Which approach do you think would do more to unlock Kenya's demographic dividend, and why?
  13. Looking at the diagram and the podcast together, what do you think is the single biggest risk to Kenya realising its demographic dividend before the window closes around 2038?

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